Covid-19 is here for a while. The vulnerable will be afraid to go out, and innovation will slow, The Economist writes, creating a global economy, “that consistently fails to reach its potential.”
Based on research by MIT, for each recorded case 12 go unrecorded and for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Absent a medical breakthrough the total number of cases will climb to 200–600M by spring 2021, resulting in 1.4-3.7M deaths. And that still leaves well over 90% of the world’s population vulnerable.
Without a cure or a vaccine, containment depends on people changing how they behave. But many are becoming disenchanted and resistant. Changing social norms is hard, and as the months drag on infections could soar, it says.