These two charts suggest a market pullback before the Dow smashes new records

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on its best winning streak since 1995.

The blue-chip index ended the week slightly higher, completing its ninth straight positive week in a row as stocks extended a months-long rally through February.

The market’s win streak put an end to an ugly Christmas sell-off. After hitting a 52-week low on Dec. 26, the Dow has roared nearly 20 percent higher, and is now less than 4 percent from its record set in October.

However, Ralph Acampora, director of technical research at Altaira Capital who’s widely hailed as the ‘godfather’ of chart analysis, said recently that a pullback is necessary before the next leg up can take place.

“We had this very snappy rally coming off the December lows,” said Acampora on CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday. “To be brutally honest, it was a little strong of a rally than I thought because we ran into a lot of that November supply area.”

“The RSI indicator – that’s the Dow relative to itself – it’s at a pretty lofty level. So on the short-term basis, we technicians would say that the markets are overbought,” he said. “You probably get a pullback.”

The RSI, or relative strength index, has moved above 70 – a level that typically indicates overbought conditions. It plummeted to roughly 20 in December, suggesting the index was oversold.

Acampora says a drop down to the 200-day moving average at around 25,000 is possible, but that level then provides a “cushion under the market” and lends support against any further downside. A decline to 25,000 marks a 4 percent downturn from Friday’s close.

READ  US posts rule allowing U.S. companies to work with Huawei on 5G and other standards

There is a silver lining, though, according to Acampora. Another technical indicator, the moving average convergence divergence indicator or MACD, on the longer-term chart is flashing a bullish signal.

“In English, it means when one moving average, when the shorter one, crosses above, as you can see there on the lower right-hand side of your graph. The Japanese affectionately call it the golden cross,” Acampora said. “It suggests that there is further upside momentum.”

A golden cross occurs when the shorter-term moving average, such as the 50-day moving average, crosses above the longer-term moving average, such as the 200-day. It points to an accelerating upward trend.

“To summarize: short-term pause, and I think we get a good chart at the all-time high, the 26,951 on the Dow, if not even higher than that,” added Acampora. “I’d say within a month or so from now.”



Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here