The Story Behind Trump’s Bitcoin Evolution – Forbes

Over the years, bitcoin evangelists have won key converts in tech and finance—from Elon Musk and Jack Dorsey to Larry Fink and Ray Dalio. Now their sights are set on helping public leaders see the light. But the bitcoin faithful face a difficult task in softening the heart of one of their greatest skeptics: former President Donald Trump.

Nevertheless, they appear to be making headway.

While Trump has been an ardent bitcoin critic in the past, his public position on the world’s largest and most successful cryptocurrency shifted significantly last week. At a televised townhall in South Carolina on Tuesday, Fox News host Laura Ingraham asked Trump if he would support bitcoin as a natural extension of his decision to oppose a central bank digital currency. Rather than criticize bitcoin, Trump praised it. In his own words: “Many people are embracing it. And more and more, I’m seeing people wanting to pay bitcoin. And you’re seeing something interesting, so I could live with it—one way or the other.”

Trump then qualified his praise with a caveat: “I’ve always liked one really powerful thing, and that’s called the dollar.” By doing so, Trump indicated that maintaining U.S. dollar hegemony remains his first concern. But that he now sees bitcoin and the dollar as co-existing currencies marks an unexpected evolution in his views on digital assets—an evolution that could have a meaningful impact at the ballot box this November.

Trump’s Dynamic Views On Digital Assets

Consider where Trump was on crypto just a few years ago.

In 2019, then-President Trump made his disdain for digital assets clear. On Twitter, he posted, “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” In the same post, Trump warned that crypto could facilitate illicit activity before claiming that the U.S. dollar would always be the world’s dominant currency.

Even after his presidency, Trump had harsh words for bitcoin. In an interview on Fox Business in June 2021, Trump said, “Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam. I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar.”

But Trump’s hardline views appeared to soften the following year when he launched an NFT collection on the Ethereum blockchain through which he raised millions of dollars to help finance his campaign. He then capitalized on this success with the launch of a “Mugshot” NFT collection on the Polgyon blockchain in December 2023.

But Trump’s crypto evolution didn’t stop there.

Opposing A CBDC

In January of this year, evidence began to emerge that Trump was coming around to bitcoin-adjacent viewpoints. Foremost among them: the perceived dangers of a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.

When pro-bitcoin candidate Vivek Ramaswamy failed to win Iowa, he dropped out of the presidential race and swiftly endorsed Trump. Ramaswamy then encouraged Trump to oppose a CBDC. Trump agreed. In his victory speech after winning the New Hampshire primary, Trump vowed, “I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.”

This statement sparked speculation that the former President would soon embrace bitcoin as a corollary to his anti-CBDC position. That’s why, after asking Trump about his CBDC position during last week’s townhall, Fox News’ Laura Ingraham asked: “Isn’t the next logical step for you to embrace bitcoin because bitcoin is obviously decentralized?”

Ingraham’s question surfaced Trump’s changed views on the matter. During the townhall, Trump expressed that he continues to favor the dollar. But he now sees that bitcoin has “taken a life of its own” and has made peace with that fact. In sum, his sentiments towards bitcoin have gone from negative to neutral.

Bitcoin: A Political Arbitrage Opportunity

The question is “Why?”

Has Trump suddenly awakened to the benefits of a decentralized, digital currency? Has he converted to Austrian economics and been effectively “orange-pilled” by the bitcoin community?

No.

Far more likely is that Trump senses a political arbitrage opportunity by taking a do-no-harm approach to bitcoin and digital assets more broadly. In doing so, he is differentiating himself from President Joe Biden, whose administration has taken a more hostile stance on crypto that risks alienating younger voters. In effect, Trump is making a play for the massive (and growing) crypto vote.

In contrast to the 2020 election when crypto investing was confined to niche corners of the internet, 52 million Americans now own digital assets. Most notably, this new voting bloc skews young and includes more Democrats than Republicans. According to survey data from Coinbase and Morning Consult, 60% of respondent crypto holders are Gen Z or Millennial while 22% identify as Democrats and 18% as Republicans. In any other election, many of these crypto holders would be Biden voters. But Trump is trying to change that.

By shifting from a negative to a neutral position on bitcoin, Trump is making a pitch to younger, pro-crypto Americans who might otherwise break for Biden. In effect, Trump is declaring himself Switzerland while his main political opponent wars against the industry through surrogates like Senator Elizabeth Warren and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler.

For Trump, making peace with bitcoin is simply a low-cost, low-risk strategy to pick up votes from the other side of the political aisle. Will it pay off? The American people—including millions of crypto voters—will decide this November.

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