Opinion

Stress test reports: All things small and vulnerable



Sebi is trying to temper the runaway growth in retail investments into mid and smallcaps by asking mutual fund houses to release fortnightly stress test reports starting this week, and to ensure equal treatment of investors during heightened market volatility as we saw this week. These interventions have become necessary because smallcap funds are drawing in nearly 15 times the money flowing into largecap funds. The Nifty smallcap index is up by 33% in the last six months against a 14% rise in the Nifty 50. There has also been a surge in listing by small companies and Sebi is concerned retail investor may not adequately appreciate the special risks of investing in this market segment. Smallcaps are especially prone to price manipulation, which tends to amplify volatility on display this week, especially in Wednesday’s ‘Bubble Bath‘ on D St.

The rise in listing by small companies is a reflection of India’s strong economic performance and a healthy diversion of capital to sectors most in need. But it comes with the added risk of performance disappointment if GDP growth is not as robust as investors are projecting. Valuations in pockets of small and midcaps have dissociated from earnings potential, which bears out Sebi’s view of froth, if not an outright bubble. Fund houses are telling their retail clients to cut leveraged positions and are discouraging lump-sum investments in smallcaps in anticipation of a deep correction in this segment. The warnings from the regulatory and the mutual fund industry are an attempt to divert a bigger portion of the rising tide of retail investments towards largecaps, where the market rally may still have some legs.

India is the most expensive emerging market and cannot remain unaffected by a flight to safety if global growth falters. The market is heeding warnings and counter-measures by Sebi over pockets of irrational exuberance. But these may not be enough to protect retail investors jumping into the last stages of a bull market.



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