Private Payrolls, Beige Book, Oil Supplies: 3 Things to Watch

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By Liz Moyer — Stocks cooled off on Tuesday, giving back some of the gains from Monday, which was the best day for the since last June.

Profit taking may be partly to blame for the pull-back, especially in tech shares.

The Senate now has President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, which has already passed the House. Lawmakers on the Democrat side of the aisle are trying to get a completed bill to the White House by mid-month, so $1,400 checks can be mailed out to qualifying individuals.

An important set of job data comes out this week, including the private payroll report on Wednesday and the government’s reading of February job numbers on Friday, the first full-month job report of President Biden’s administration.

Merck & Company Inc (NYSE:) said Tuesday it would help Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:) make its one-dose vaccine as the U.S. tries to ramp up its vaccination efforts. 

Here are three things that could affect markets tomorrow:

1. Private payrolls a harbinger of government data

employment changes for February are due out Tuesday at 8:15 AM ET (1315 GMT). Expectations are for a gain of 177,000 during the month versus the 174,000 added in January.

2. Federal Reserve observations from regional banks

The Federal Reserve’s will be released at 2:00 PM ET, on the same day a number of Fed officials speak at various conferences and scheduled meetings. The Beige Book is a compilation of economic and business conditions reports from the various Fed banks around the country and is useful for spotting trends and potential weaknesses.

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3. Oil inventory a gauge of business demand

The energy sector recently had gained amid tensions between Saudi and Russia. The influential producing nations have to decide whether to stick with output cuts made last year, or change them. Naturally, they disagree. 

OPEC reportedly forecast crude oil inventories to fall by about 400 million barrels in 2021. Ahead of a virtual meeting of oil producing nations, Russia is expected to push for a further increase in supply, while the kingdom is eager to keep supplies tight in order to take advantage of higher prices.

The U.S. oil industry’s weekly survey said stockpiles rose more than 7 million barrels last week. On Wednesday, government data on U.S. stockpiles comes out at 10:30 AM ET. The Energy Information Administration is expected to report U.S. fell 928,000 barrels last week, following a build of 1.285 million barrels in the prior week.

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