Opportunity, or trap? Glassnode on Bitcoin price outlook

  • Bitcoin’s rally from December lows after the FTX collapse surprised many investors, Glassnode says in its weekly report.
  • Bitcoin could see further upside but a fresh buy signal is likely at prices around $28.3k.
  • Selling pressure above $23.3k is more likely given short-term holders and miner push for exit liquidity.

Bitcoin price remains poised near $23,000 after a breakout pushed the leading cryptocurrency’s value above the psychological $20k level.

As highlighted ove the weekend, Bitcoin’s surge to prices above $23,000 did surprise many people, and while optimism is high among bulls, a potential liquidity exit from profit booking is likely. Particularly, this could be the outlook given how brutal the 2022 bear market was for short term holders and miners.

On-chain data platform Glassnode has highlighted this possibility.

Glassnode’s outlook after latest BTC price action

According to on-chain data firm Glassnode, Bitcoin looks “almost out of the woods,” but the price action to levels in the $21k to $23k region also reclaimed several on-chain pricing models.

A look at the Investor Price (currently at $17.4k) and Delta Price ($11.4k), signifies a similar price action at the bear market bottom of 2018-2019. Investor Price is the average price at which investors acquired all the spent and miner distributed coins, while Delta Price is derived from Realized Cap minus Bitcoin’s all-time Average Cap to get a technical pricing model.

At the base of this outlook is the price discovery phase, which during that 2018 bear market bottom lasted 78 days. The current market is at a similar level, with BTC above the Realized Price of $19.7k.

This suggests an equivalency in durational pain across the darkest phase of both bear markets,” Glassnode wrote in its weekly market report.

Still on the Investor Price/Delta Price metrics, the on-chain platform points to a measure called compression, which takes into account the spot price to determine the intensity of the market’s undervaluation.  The metric also correlates with the scale of change in an asset’s Realized Cap or capital inflow volume, with a threshold zone of 0.15-0.2.

Given the current BTC price and compression value, Glassnode estimates a bullish confirmation signal could be triggered if Bitcoin bulls reclaim $28.3k.

More optimism for bulls

Also helping the bull case is the Supply in Profit measure, which spiked 12% in the last two weeks to rise from 55% to 67%. The spike in percent of coins in profit is “the sharpest” of all prior bear markets, suggesting a lot more coins changed hands below the $23.3k level.

Key to bulls’ case is also the fact that Bitcoin price at current levels is above all the three cost basis of long-term holder, short-term holder and BTC Realized Price. This is the first time spot price has pierced the three Realized Prices and sustained momentum above the levels would be positive.

A bull trap case

While Glassnode points to potential bull case scenarios, its report also highlights probable cases of fresh sell-off pressure.

According to the on-chain data report, one of these is the “substantial spike in profitability,” which the platform says raises the possibility of selling pressure triggered by short-term holders. 

Miners are also likely to be motivated by the price action and might look to liquidate some of their holdings, adding to a potential retreat for BTC price.


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