OPEC+ weighs extending existing oil output cuts into 2021



© Reuters. The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sits outside its headquarters in Vienna

DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) – OPEC and its allies hold a ministerial committee meeting on Tuesday to look at adjusting plans for oil supply cuts next year as the coronavirus crisis continues to drive down demand.

The group known as OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and others, are now due to wind down cuts that now stand at 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 5.7 million bpd from January.

But a worsening demand outlook and rising supplies from countries such as Libya has prompted OPEC+ to consider pushing back any increase in supply by three or six months.

The following graphics were included in a confidential report seen by Reuters that was drawn up by an OPEC+ panel, known as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC).

INVENTORIES

OPEC+ has looked at various scenarios on altering the deal on output cuts and the impact each scenario would have on reducing OECD inventories in line with the five-year average.

GRAPHIC: OPEC+ Scenarios and Impact on Oil Inventories – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/xklpybqkbvg/OPEC%20Scenarios.PNG

CONFORMITY WITH CUTS

OPEC+ has yet to achieve full compliance among all members of the group with the oil cuts agreed in 2020. The group has asked countries that overproduced to make additional compensation cuts until the end of the year.

OPEC+ figures show cumulative overproduction for all participating members is at 2.346 million bpd.

GRAPHIC: Conformity Table – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/yzdvxkqdmpx/Conformity%20Table.PNG GRAPHIC: OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/qmyvmxborpr/OPEC%20Deviation.PNG GRAPHIC: Non-OPEC Deviation with Oil Cuts – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/dgkvlabwypb/Non%20OPEC%20Deviation.PNG GRAPHIC: OPEC+ Deviation from Oil Cuts – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/xlbpgzjglvq/OPEC%20Deviation%20from%20Cuts.PNGGRAPHIC: OPEC+ Conformity with Cuts – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/oakpexeqavr/conformity%20with%20cuts.PNG

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DEMAND

OPEC expects global oil demand to rebound more slowly in 2021 than previously thought due to rising coronavirus cases. GRAPHIC: OPEC Demand Forecast – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/nmovadwkgpa/OPEC%20Demand%20forecast.PNG

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