Homebuilder confidence slips slightly in November

A PulteGroup housing development in San Jose, California.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The nation’s single-family homebuilders are feeling very positive about their business, but a monthly sentiment indicator fell in November from a recent high.

The national association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell one point to 70, after rising steadily since June to the highest level of the year last month. Anything above 50 is considered positive. The index measured 60 in November 2018.

“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, CT. “In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all builders surveyed have reported positive buyer traffic conditions.”

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell two points to 76, traffic of prospective buyers dropped one point to 53 and sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 77.

Sentiment, as well as housing starts, are stronger this year thanks in part to much lower mortgage interest rates. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was around 5% in November of 2018 and is now hovering just below 4%. Homebuilders are also finally, slowly starting to pivot more toward less pricey, starter homes. There are, however, still several roadblocks at that price point.

“We have seen substantial year-over-year improvement following the housing affordability crunch of late 2018, when the HMI stood at 60,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, lot shortages remain a serious problem, particularly among custom builders. Builders also continue to grapple with other affordability headwinds, including a lack of labor and regulatory constraints.”

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Stocks of the big public builders have been on a tear all year, rising as mortgage rates fall. Most builders have also been reporting solid beats in quarterly earnings, as buyer demand surges thanks to job growth and a severe shortage of affordable, existing homes for sale

The iShares US Home Construction ETF is up 50% year to date.

Regionally, on a three month moving average, homebuilder sentiment rose two points to 62 in the Northeast and rose three points in the West to 81. In the South, sentiment moved one point higher to 74, and in the Midwest sentiment was unchanged at 58.



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