Factbox: No-deal Brexit risk is receding, some banks say

(Reuters) – The risk that Britain will crash out of the EU without an agreement on March 29 has receded in the past two weeks, some banks and asset managers say, citing expectations that the exit deadline will be extended to allow lawmakers to reach a deal.

A pro-Brexit protester holds a placard outside of the Houses of Parliament in London, Britain, February 26, 2019. REUTERS/Toby Melville

At the end of January, banks informally canvassed by Reuters for their forecasts saw the no-deal probability as low but rising. Some of those banks have since revised down that risk.

Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday offered parliament the chance to vote on delaying Brexit or opting for a no-deal outcome if lawmakers again reject in a planned vote on March 12 the agreement she has negotiated with the European Union.

Sterling surged to 21-month highs against the euro of 85.88 pence and against the dollar it hit four-month highs of $1.3238, up around 3.3 percent this year.

For an interactive version of the below chart, click here tmsnrt.rs/2Ua88yG:

Below are the views from a selection of investment banks and asset managers:


Has reduced its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 10 percent from 15 percent previously.


Says the probability of no-deal Brexit remains at 15 percent. It still sees a 35 percent chance of Britain remaining in the EU and a 50 percent probability of May’s Brexit deal eventually being agreed. That view embodies a three-month extension of Article 50 through June, according to the bank.

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Its view of a 20 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit and a 35 percent chance of a second Brexit referendum remains unchanged. It said last month that a delay to the March 29 deadline was “inevitable”.


Maintains its view of a 20 percent chance of no-deal Brexit. Says even if risks for the March 29 deadline recede, an extension of Article 50 could still result in a no-deal outcome.


Reckons no-deal risks have slipped to 25 percent versus its previous forecast of 30 percent. The bank said this probability could be revised lower if an extension of Article 50 is confirmed.


Sees the probability at 20 percent, same as previously.


Assigns 10 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit, lowering it slightly from 10-15 percent in January. It predicts the deadline for leaving will have to be extended.


Has revised down its forecast of no-deal scenario to 20 percent, from 25-30 percent last month. It is “very confident” the deadline will be extended and sees chances of a second referendum as high as 30 percent.


Is an outlier in that it sees a hefty 53 percent odds of no-deal. It reckons the path to delaying Brexit and removing no-deal will be more convoluted than sterling moves imply.

Reporting by London markets team; graphic by Ritvik Carvalho; Compiled by Sujata Rao; Editing by Gareth Jones



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