Now, hamstrung by a widening fiscal deficit, New Delhi has been slowly reducing the size of those handouts — a shift that risks upsetting women voters and potentially exposing millions to heavier levels of pollution.
In Allauddinnagar, a village in Uttar Pradesh, Laxmi Kishore, a 35-year-old homemaker, is worried. Cooking food for her family used to be an ordeal that involved using cheap fuels like cow dung, crops and wood, which burn with a sooty flame and left her teary eyed and choking. When Modi’s program made liquefied petroleum gas cylinders affordable to her some years ago, she breathed more easily.
Now Kishore is preparing to return to her earthen stove and the smoggier fuels her ancestors used because the subsidy that landed in her account each time she refilled a cylinder has stopped arriving. Her husband lost his job as a cashier in a highway restaurant during last year’s Covid-19 lockdown, making a cooking cylinder unaffordable to them without the handout.
“I’m dreading a return to my earlier pain,” she said. “It will mean less sleep and suffering in the smoke again.”
Provisions for the LPG cooking fuel subsidies were halved in the budget for the fiscal year ending March 2022 to Rs 12,480 crore from Rs 25,500 crore a year earlier. A spokesperson at India’s oil ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The program launched in 2016 by the Modi government offered cash rebates for purchasing an LPG connection and a loan for the first canister of the fuel and stove. More than 8 crore women from extremely poor households had received such LPG connections by January 1 this year. The government announced plans in the latest budget to extend the benefit to another 1 crore households, mostly located in the remote forests and hilly areas.
To help the poor struggling with lockdowns, the government last year also offered free LPG refills of three cylinders. India’s LPG consumption in 2020 surpassed petrol for the first time ever over a calendar year, government data show.
But the free supplies were a one-off move and the finance director of Indian Oil Corp., the largest retailer of the cylinders, said last month that the government had last year stopped subsidizing the fuel for consumers except in the most remote areas.
Meanwhile, prices of LPG have surged across the country. Cost of a typical LPG cylinder sold by Indian Oil in Delhi has increased by 40% since November to Rs 819.
Providing cooking gas has been one of the biggest successes of Modi’s flagship welfare programs which also included building toilets and houses for the poor.
“The elephant in the room is the price rise,” said Arati Jerath, a New Delhi-based author and political analyst. “The LPG program started as a very popular scheme, but has been petering out because of the price increase. Modi will have to come up with a new emotive issue as the government is running out of money to indulge in populism measures.”
LPG is crucial for reducing domestic pollution in India. The country has the highest instances of premature deaths in the world due to emissions from burning fossil fuels, including coal and oil products, according to research done by Harvard University in collaboration with other academic institutions.
“Withdrawal of subsidy and increase in prices is likely to affect LPG consumption, particularly in rural areas where alternatives such as firewood, agricultural residue, dung cakes are readily available,” according to Ashok Sreenivas, a senior fellow at Prayas, an Indian advocacy group that works in energy policy.
An increase in the use of alternative solid fuels will “definitely impact the health” of rural women and children as these release particulate matters that can cause illnesses including lung cancer, heart ailments and even stroke, he said.
India faces issues other than price in getting poorer populations to adopt cleaner fuel. Availability is also a problem in far flung areas that are hard to reach, Prayas said in a December report. India’s oil ministry has said beneficiaries of the program availed of less than two refills of the three free ones offered over nine months last year.
Air pollution inside houses, primarily due to burning solid fuels like wood, dried dung and biomass, contributed to more than 10 lakh deaths in 2010, making it the second-biggest health risk factor in India, according to a 2015 report by Steering Committee on Air Pollution and Health Related Issues.
The International Energy Agency in a special report last month said that despite the recent success in expanding coverage of LPG in rural areas, 66 crore Indians haven’t fully switched to modern, clean cooking fuels. Higher costs and fewer subsidies might only make it harder to draw new users. Vehicular exhaust, industrial emissions and other factors have already made India home to 14 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world.
The task of encouraging the poor to use the cleaner fuel becomes even more challenging with millions losing their jobs during the pandemic. Poor households are more sensitive to higher fuel prices as they can easily shift to cheaper alternatives for which they need to pay just a few rupees every day, rather than spending as much as Rs 800 per cylinder upfront.
“Prices are rising and the government has stopped compensating us,” said Kaushal Kishore, Laxmi’s husband. “I can’t afford LPG any further and this is my last cylinder till I find myself a job.”