Brexit odds: what will happen next?


It is another pivotal day at Westminster as MPs take part in a series of votes that could change the course of Brexit.

Following the rejection of Theresa May’s EU withdrawal agreement in Parliament earlier this month, the prime minister tabled a parliamentary motion on her so-called Brexit plan B. More than a dozen amendments to this motion were subsequently proposed by backbench MPs and opposition parties. 

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has picked seven of the amendments to be debated and voted on, including Sir Graham Brady’s proposals for “alternative arrangements” to the backstop, and Yvette Cooper’s plan to delay Brexit.

“Today’s Westminster ‘battle of the amendments’ may seem remote to many, but the next few weeks will settle the future for us all for decades – for better or very much worse,” says Polly Toynbee in The Guardian.

Meanwhile, May has said she is talking to key EU leaders about reopening negotiations, to seek legally binding changes to the controversial Irish backstop.

So, as the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg asks, can MPs find agreement in their plans? There is a “whisper of a compromise”, which “might, just might, be the start of something”, says Kuenssberg.

But the past few months have proven that the course of Brexit is difficult to predict, with the UK in wholly unknown territory. 

All the same, that hasn’t stopped the bookmakers from taking bets on what might happen next. Here are some of the odds on offer.

When will the UK leave the EU?

The odds on the UK leaving the bloc on 29 March 2019 have drifted, with Sky Bet offering 10/3 on the UK sticking to the deadline, and 1/5 on the process taking longer than expected.

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Will there be a second referendum?

Ladbrokes suggests not, with 1/3 on no second referendum this year, 2/1 on a 2019 referendum, and 7/2 on a 2019 referendum with voters opting to remain.

What about a no-deal Brexit?

Both Ladbrokes and Coral have odds of 3/1 on the UK leaving the EU without a deal by the end of March.

Will Theresa May stay in office?

Betfair gives the PM a 1/2 chance of remaining in power when the UK leaves the bloc. She fares better than Bercow, who has a 1/25 chance of keeping his job as Speaker by 1 April 2019, according to Paddy Power.



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