Boris Johnson will not face a criminal investigation into his relationship with Jennifer Arcuri when he was Mayor of London, sources have told the Mirror.
The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is set to reveal its long-awaited decision this lunchtime on whether the Prime Minister’s links to the US tech entrepreneur should face a police inquiry.
However, it is expected to recommend there be no criminal investigation.
Sources suggested the IOPC had found some evidence of a possible “intimate relationship” between the pair, but that it was “unnecessary” to launch a criminal investigation.
The decision will open the door for a probe by the London Assembly – which paused its investigation into the issue last year – to resume.
That probe would not have the same powers as police, but could potentially call Mr Johnson and Ms Arcuri as witnesses.
Ms Arcuri was among several attendees who went on three trade missions Mr Johnson led in 2014 and 2015, while Mayor of London.
She or her companies were also awarded £126,000 in public funds in the form of three separate deals.
The money included £11,500 from the Mayor’s promotional agency, London & Partners, and a £100,000 grant from the Department for Culture, Media and Sport to her firm Hacker House.
A review by the DCMS last October decided a £100,000 grant promised to her firm was “appropriate”, despite it being based in California.
Mr Johnson was said to be a regular visitor to Ms Arcuri’s London apartment when he was mayor.
Despite the top-level access – which began after they met in October 2011 – 34-year-old Ms Arcuri insisted in an interview that “Boris never ever gave me favouritism”.
She did not confirm or deny if she had a sexual relationship with the 55-year-old PM – who she nicknamed Alexander the Great.
In an ITV documentary, she later issued a message to Mr Johnson saying: “I don’t understand why you’ve blocked me and ignored me as if I was some fleeting one-night stand or some girl that you picked up at a bar, because I wasn’t – and you know that.
“And I’m terribly heartbroken by the way that you have cast me aside like I am some gremlin.”
But her friends and family have denied suggestions they had an affair, insisting the daytime visits were for “technology lessons”.
She said the then-Mayor had been to her flat “five, ten, a handful of times” and described him as “a really good friend”.
The PM has insisted that he acted with “full propriety” and said he had no interests to declare in relation to Ms Arcuri.
Speaking to the BBC in September, the PM was asked five times whether he had declared an interest in his links to Ms Arcuri.
Eventually on the sixth time of asking, he said no, he had not declared an interest because “there was no interest to declare.”
The IOPC, which was asked to investigate because Mr Johnson was head of the Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime at the time, has taken eight months to reach a decision.
It was one of four separate probes which was launched into the issue when it first came to light last year.
Three of those investigations, the IOPC, DCMS and a review carried out for current London mayor Sadiq Khan, have now concluded. The fourth is the possible London Assembly probe.
The review for Mr Khan, by Kathryn Robinson, General Counsel of the London Fire Brigade, found companies attending all trade missions should be declared on the L&P website.
It also found a “reminder of the process for deciding sponsorship” should be circulated to L&P staff.