Agents keeping SPY above 300, for now


The market has been dealing with some last-minute moves, but it’s been helpful for bulls.

On Tuesday the SPDR S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY) jumped up 2.8% in the last hour of trading, dipped 0.02% in some active trading on Wednesday and down another 1% on Thursday There have been swings on COVID vaccine hope and reopening pessimism. 

But looking at the past month, SPY has fought to be above 300 through all the headlines.

The 200-day moving average for the ETF is at 301.81. It’s dipped below there twice in June, but has bounced back. SPY has been building a move above 300 since May 29 and has taken the recent challenges. But the 100-day moving average is not too far away at 291.21.

Online insurer Lemonade capped the holiday-shortened week off with a bang. It soared X% on its first day of trading. The company raised $319 million, pricing shares above an already-boosted ran

Could the desire of the market for growth bring back more IPOs when everyone thought the new-issues market was dead? 

Tech has been the driver and would be the most likely sector to see companies come to market. 

IPOs tend to hit the Street when volatility is low, and a good guideline is when VIX is below 40. That has been trending down since mid-June.

Under the Radar

The nonfarm payrolls boost of 4.8M for June was a big boost to the broader market Thursday. It was well above the consensus forecast of 3M (although economists’ forecasts have been sketchy and the called fore a huge drop from May).

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But there is a lot to consider about how the recent employment figures can be assessed.

ADP caused consternation the day before the government numbers, when it revised its May figures by almost 6M and went from negative to positive. But it was later clarified that such a revision was solely a benchmark move to make ADP closer to the BLS numbers it forecasts.

A rarity, jobless claims arrived the same day. Continuing clams rose, although stayed below 20M. But there are problems with that data set as well, according to Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.

“Warning about the weekly UI claims data out today,” she tweeted Thursday. “The data is an a mess. Many UI claims now represent multiple attempts by workers still unable to get the UI benefits that they qualify for – many states are carrying their unfinished business on claims for weeks on end.”

 





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